People and prices

26% of small business owners say labor quality or availability is their single biggest problem. 20% say it's inflation, up 4 points in a month and almost 3 times the long-run average of 7%. Those numbers come from NFIB's September survey of its members, released Oct 13.

The rest of the report points the same way. NFIB's Optimism Index fell 0.8 points to 97.9, a tenth of a point under its 52-year average of 98.0. The Uncertainty Index rose 1 point to 90, where the historical average is 68. Only 7% of owners say it's a good time to expand, down 5 points.

It's a survey of what owners say, so I read it as a mood reading. The mood is clear enough to act on, though. When you can't hire easily and can't predict your costs, 3 habits cost only your time and make the next few months easier to run.

1. One job on paper

Pick the job that would hurt most if the person who does it were out for 2 weeks. Write the steps the way you'd explain them to a new hire on day 1: where the file lives, who to ask, and what done looks like.

The fastest way is to record 5 minutes of your screen while you do the job and talk through it. Then paste the transcript into ChatGPT or Claude, ask for numbered steps, and check every step yourself. Remove customer names and account numbers first.

You end up with a page a new hire can follow, and you find out which steps only one person knows.

2. Your 10 biggest costs

List your 10 biggest recurring costs: suppliers, shipping, software, insurance, fuel. Next to each one, put the latest invoice and the one before it, then the percentage change. Do it on the same day every month.

Reprice or renegotiate only what moved. Gasoline is the one to check first if you ship or deliver, since the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports gasoline rose 9.1% in September.

3. Dates on open decisions

Uncertainty at 90 is well above the average of 68. Waiting is a decision, and it works better with a date on it.

For each open decision (a hire, a second location, a big order), write down what would make you say yes and the day you'll decide. For example: "I'll decide on the second hire on Dec 1, after I see November sales." If the date comes and the answer is still no, write the next date.

If you want a second set of eyes on which job to write down first, grab a time with me.

Source: NFIB, "Uncertainty Grows and Optimism Fades Slightly on Main Street in September", Oct 13, 2026, as reported by ABA Banking Journal. Gasoline: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index, September 2026.